The Resource Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? : intervention timing and its implications for force planning, Jennifer Kavanagh, (electronic book)

Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? : intervention timing and its implications for force planning, Jennifer Kavanagh, (electronic book)

Label
Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? : intervention timing and its implications for force planning
Title
Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time?
Title remainder
intervention timing and its implications for force planning
Statement of responsibility
Jennifer Kavanagh
Creator
Subject
Genre
Language
eng
Summary
Current DoD force planning processes assume that U.S. military interventions are serially independent over time. This report challenges this assumption, arguing that interventions occur in temporally dependent clusters in which the likelihood of an intervention depends on interventions in the recent past. The author used data on 66 U.S. Army contingency and peacekeeping deployments of at least company size between 1949 and 2010 and found evidence of temporal dependence between military interventions even when controlling for political, economic, and other security factors. However, the results also suggested that clustering is affected by the nature of the geopolitical regime and is stronger at certain points than others, for example, after the Cold War as compared to during the Cold War. The results suggested that as few as two military interventions above average is often enough to trigger interventions in subsequent years. Because current planning processes address only the direct force demands of a given deployment and ignore the heightened risk for additional demands created by temporal dependence, these processes may project force requirements that understate the demands placed on military deployments during a period of clustered interventions. This analysis suggests that DoD should consider modifying the integrated security constructs to incorporate serial correlation of interventions, making assumptions about the nature of the current or future geopolitical regime explicit, and assessing whether the existing set of force planning frameworks reflects the spectrum of potential future geopolitical regimes
Member of
Cataloging source
CaPaEBR
http://library.link/vocab/creatorDate
1981-
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Kavanagh, Jennifer
Index
no index present
LC call number
U153
LC item number
.K38 2013eb
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • standards specifications
  • bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Intervention (International law)
  • Intervention (International law)
  • Military planning
  • United States
Label
Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? : intervention timing and its implications for force planning, Jennifer Kavanagh, (electronic book)
Instantiates
Publication
Note
  • "Prepared for the United States Army."
  • "RAND Arroyo Center."
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Control code
ebr10744765
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
xvii, 57 p.
Form of item
  • online
  • electronic
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Original version note
Original electronic resource
Reproduction note
Electronic resource.
Specific material designation
remote
Label
Are U.S. military interventions contagious over time? : intervention timing and its implications for force planning, Jennifer Kavanagh, (electronic book)
Publication
Note
  • "Prepared for the United States Army."
  • "RAND Arroyo Center."
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Control code
ebr10744765
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
xvii, 57 p.
Form of item
  • online
  • electronic
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Original version note
Original electronic resource
Reproduction note
Electronic resource.
Specific material designation
remote

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