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The Resource Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries : Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management, by Forrest E. Morgan, David T. Orletsky, Ryan Henry, Roger C. Molander, Ely Ratner, Robert Reardon, Heather Peterson, Harun Dogo, Jessica Hart, Lisa Saum-Manning

Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries : Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management, by Forrest E. Morgan, David T. Orletsky, Ryan Henry, Roger C. Molander, Ely Ratner, Robert Reardon, Heather Peterson, Harun Dogo, Jessica Hart, Lisa Saum-Manning

Creator
Author
Contributor
Summary
"Risks are increasing that the United States will find itself in confrontations with nuclear-armed regional adversaries--that is, hostile states with small nuclear arsenals. This research seeks to help the U.S. Air Force understand and prepare for such confrontations. The authors explore circumstances in which the United States might be able to neutralize a regional opponent's nuclear capabilities, and describe how and in what circumstances the United States can manage escalation while defeating nuclear-armed opponents in conventional conflict. The analysis finds that there is probably no case in which U.S. forces could neutralize an opponent's nuclear capabilities with a high enough probability of success that U.S. leaders would let them attempt it. However, U.S. forces should be able to manage escalation in some conventional conflicts, as long as the United States does not threaten the survival of the enemy regime or its nuclear deterrent forces. U.S. leaders must deter the adversary from escalating above critical U.S. thresholds and manage U.S. forces to avoid inadvertent and accidental escalation. The authors recommend that the Air Force continue research and development on methods and capabilities to find, fix, track, target, and assess enemy nuclear weapons capabilities; continue research and development on ballistic and cruise missile defenses; and conduct research on how to rebalance the force to better enable posturing airpower to conduct conventional strike operations from afar, in order to defeat a nuclear-armed regional adversary's conventional forces while operating from bases beyond the range of its conventional and nuclear strike capabilities"--Publisher's description
Language
eng
Work
Publication
Extent
1 online resource (xxiii, 99 pages)
Note
"October 27, 2015"--Table of contents page
Contents
  • Research Methodology
  • How This Report Is Organized
  • 2. Bringing the Challenge into Focus:
  • The Blurred Nuclear Threshold
  • Third-Party Considerations
  • These Factors Increase Risks of Conflict Escalation
  • Dilemmas for U.S. Decisionmakers
  • 3. Assessing the Neutralization Options:
  • The Adversary's Range of Options
  • Potential Ways to Neutralize an Adversary's Nuclear Capabilities
  • In Memoriam
  • Concluding Observations
  • 4. Managing Escalation in Crisis and War
  • The Principles of Threshold Management
  • Managing Escalation in Three Geostrategic Challenges
  • Looking at the Larger Picture
  • 5. Meeting the Challenge
  • The Regional Nuclear Paradox
  • Crafting Strategies for Escalation Management
  • Putting These Observations in Today's Geostrategic Context
  • Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force
  • Preface
  • Appendix A. The Second Nuclear Age
  • Appendix B. The Inadequacy of Cold War Concepts
  • Abbreviations
  • References
  • Figures and Table
  • Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • 1. An Emerging National Security Challenge:
  • Introduction
  • Purpose of This Research
Isbn
9780833093356
Instance
Label
Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries : Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management
Title
Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries
Title remainder
Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management
Statement of responsibility
by Forrest E. Morgan, David T. Orletsky, Ryan Henry, Roger C. Molander, Ely Ratner, Robert Reardon, Heather Peterson, Harun Dogo, Jessica Hart, Lisa Saum-Manning
Title variation
Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management
Creator
Contributor
Author
Issuing body
Subject
Language
eng
Summary
"Risks are increasing that the United States will find itself in confrontations with nuclear-armed regional adversaries--that is, hostile states with small nuclear arsenals. This research seeks to help the U.S. Air Force understand and prepare for such confrontations. The authors explore circumstances in which the United States might be able to neutralize a regional opponent's nuclear capabilities, and describe how and in what circumstances the United States can manage escalation while defeating nuclear-armed opponents in conventional conflict. The analysis finds that there is probably no case in which U.S. forces could neutralize an opponent's nuclear capabilities with a high enough probability of success that U.S. leaders would let them attempt it. However, U.S. forces should be able to manage escalation in some conventional conflicts, as long as the United States does not threaten the survival of the enemy regime or its nuclear deterrent forces. U.S. leaders must deter the adversary from escalating above critical U.S. thresholds and manage U.S. forces to avoid inadvertent and accidental escalation. The authors recommend that the Air Force continue research and development on methods and capabilities to find, fix, track, target, and assess enemy nuclear weapons capabilities; continue research and development on ballistic and cruise missile defenses; and conduct research on how to rebalance the force to better enable posturing airpower to conduct conventional strike operations from afar, in order to defeat a nuclear-armed regional adversary's conventional forces while operating from bases beyond the range of its conventional and nuclear strike capabilities"--Publisher's description
Member of
Cataloging source
AD#
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Morgan, Forrest E
Dewey number
355.8/251190973
Government publication
international or intergovernmental publication
Illustrations
  • illustrations
  • charts
Index
no index present
LC call number
U264.3
LC item number
.M67 2015eb online
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • dictionaries
  • bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/relatedWorkOrContributorName
Rand Corporation
Series statement
Research report
Series volume
RR-974-AF
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Nuclear weapons
  • Nuclear arms control
  • Escalation (Military science)
  • Deterrence (Strategy)
  • Conflict management
  • Security, International
  • Military planning
  • United States
Label
Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries : Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management, by Forrest E. Morgan, David T. Orletsky, Ryan Henry, Roger C. Molander, Ely Ratner, Robert Reardon, Heather Peterson, Harun Dogo, Jessica Hart, Lisa Saum-Manning
Instantiates
Publication
Copyright
Note
"October 27, 2015"--Table of contents page
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 89-99)
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • Research Methodology
  • How This Report Is Organized
  • 2. Bringing the Challenge into Focus:
  • The Blurred Nuclear Threshold
  • Third-Party Considerations
  • These Factors Increase Risks of Conflict Escalation
  • Dilemmas for U.S. Decisionmakers
  • 3. Assessing the Neutralization Options:
  • The Adversary's Range of Options
  • Potential Ways to Neutralize an Adversary's Nuclear Capabilities
  • In Memoriam
  • Concluding Observations
  • 4. Managing Escalation in Crisis and War
  • The Principles of Threshold Management
  • Managing Escalation in Three Geostrategic Challenges
  • Looking at the Larger Picture
  • 5. Meeting the Challenge
  • The Regional Nuclear Paradox
  • Crafting Strategies for Escalation Management
  • Putting These Observations in Today's Geostrategic Context
  • Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force
  • Preface
  • Appendix A. The Second Nuclear Age
  • Appendix B. The Inadequacy of Cold War Concepts
  • Abbreviations
  • References
  • Figures and Table
  • Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • 1. An Emerging National Security Challenge:
  • Introduction
  • Purpose of This Research
Extent
1 online resource (xxiii, 99 pages)
Form of item
online
Isbn
9780833093356
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other physical details
color illustrations, color charts.
Specific material designation
remote
Label
Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries : Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management, by Forrest E. Morgan, David T. Orletsky, Ryan Henry, Roger C. Molander, Ely Ratner, Robert Reardon, Heather Peterson, Harun Dogo, Jessica Hart, Lisa Saum-Manning
Publication
Copyright
Note
"October 27, 2015"--Table of contents page
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references (pages 89-99)
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
  • Research Methodology
  • How This Report Is Organized
  • 2. Bringing the Challenge into Focus:
  • The Blurred Nuclear Threshold
  • Third-Party Considerations
  • These Factors Increase Risks of Conflict Escalation
  • Dilemmas for U.S. Decisionmakers
  • 3. Assessing the Neutralization Options:
  • The Adversary's Range of Options
  • Potential Ways to Neutralize an Adversary's Nuclear Capabilities
  • In Memoriam
  • Concluding Observations
  • 4. Managing Escalation in Crisis and War
  • The Principles of Threshold Management
  • Managing Escalation in Three Geostrategic Challenges
  • Looking at the Larger Picture
  • 5. Meeting the Challenge
  • The Regional Nuclear Paradox
  • Crafting Strategies for Escalation Management
  • Putting These Observations in Today's Geostrategic Context
  • Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force
  • Preface
  • Appendix A. The Second Nuclear Age
  • Appendix B. The Inadequacy of Cold War Concepts
  • Abbreviations
  • References
  • Figures and Table
  • Summary
  • Acknowledgments
  • 1. An Emerging National Security Challenge:
  • Introduction
  • Purpose of This Research
Extent
1 online resource (xxiii, 99 pages)
Form of item
online
Isbn
9780833093356
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other physical details
color illustrations, color charts.
Specific material designation
remote

Subject

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