Coverart for item
The Resource Stalking the black swan : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility, Kenneth A. Posner, (electronic book)

Stalking the black swan : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility, Kenneth A. Posner, (electronic book)

Label
Stalking the black swan : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility
Title
Stalking the black swan
Title remainder
research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility
Statement of responsibility
Kenneth A. Posner
Creator
Subject
Language
eng
Summary
Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called "specialty finance" sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard¿many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the "Black Swans" of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal¿our computers and our minds¿Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility
Cataloging source
MiAaPQ
http://library.link/vocab/creatorName
Posner, Kenneth A
Dewey number
332.63/2042
Illustrations
illustrations
Index
index present
LC call number
HG4529
LC item number
.P67 2010
Literary form
non fiction
Nature of contents
  • dictionaries
  • bibliography
http://library.link/vocab/subjectName
  • Investment analysis
  • Investments
  • Business cycles
  • Recessions
Label
Stalking the black swan : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility, Kenneth A. Posner, (electronic book)
Instantiates
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references and index
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment
Control code
EBC908205
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
xv, 267 p.
Form of item
  • online
  • electronic
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other physical details
ill.
Reproduction note
Electronic resource :
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
  • (MiAaPQ)EBC908205
  • (Au-PeEL)EBL908205
  • (CaPaEBR)ebr10419632
  • (CaONFJC)MIL279661
  • (OCoLC)716238658
Label
Stalking the black swan : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility, Kenneth A. Posner, (electronic book)
Publication
Bibliography note
Includes bibliographical references and index
Carrier category
online resource
Carrier category code
  • cr
Carrier MARC source
rdacarrier
Color
multicolored
Content category
text
Content type code
  • txt
Content type MARC source
rdacontent
Contents
Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment
Control code
EBC908205
Dimensions
unknown
Extent
xv, 267 p.
Form of item
  • online
  • electronic
Media category
computer
Media MARC source
rdamedia
Media type code
  • c
Other physical details
ill.
Reproduction note
Electronic resource :
Specific material designation
remote
System control number
  • (MiAaPQ)EBC908205
  • (Au-PeEL)EBL908205
  • (CaPaEBR)ebr10419632
  • (CaONFJC)MIL279661
  • (OCoLC)716238658

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